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SteelHome
2008 Annual Report and Anticipation on 2009 China Steel is issued in
December. If you subscribe for one copy before December 15, we will offer
you the most favorable prices.
The 2008 Annual Report and Anticipation for 2009 include 14 separate reports on World Steel Market, China
Steel Market, China HRC/CRC Market, China Wire Rod/Rebar Market, China
Plate Market, China Stainless Steel Market, China Seamless Steel Pipe
Market, China Strip Market, China Plated/coated Coil Market, China Section
Market, and China Iron Ore Market, China Coke Market, China Scrap
Market, China Ferroalloy Market.
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Annual
Report Subscription
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Non-subscriber
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Formal
Subscriber
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Before
Dec 15
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1500
USD
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1200
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After
Dec 15
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2000
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1500
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SteelHome
Analysis on 2008
China
Steel Market and Outlook on 2009
I
Analysis on sharp rise and sharp fall in 2008
China
steel market
1
Massive hike in
China
steel market in H1, 2008
●
Snow storm affected steel supply
●
Power coal and coke supply shortage during Spring
Festival
●
Massive rise in iron ore contracted price
●
Influences of Beijing Olympics
●
Prefab construction after Wenchuan earthquake drove up
cold rolled products market
●
Continuous depreciation of US dollar, crazy hike in
commodity price and spreading inflation all over the world
●
World steel price surged
●
In spite of the tightened money policy the government
implemented, inflation pressure still mounted, which cushioned the
contradiction of the glut.
2
China
steel price plummeted from the 3rd quarter.
●
China economy grew slower in the 3rd
quarter.
●
Continuously tightening money policy exerted great
pressure on capital flow.
●
International commodity price dropped with the
depreciation of USD
●
Financial crisis blew heavily on market psychology.
3
China
crude steel supply forecast
●
According to current market situations and production cutbacks amid many
steel mills, SteelHome revised its formal prediction of 520-530 million
tons of 2008 crude steel production to about 510 million tons, up 4.2% or
20 million tons year on year.
●
SteelHome assumes China steel products exports of 2008 at 57.50 million
tons, down 8.2% or 5.15 million tons year on year
II
China steel market anticipation for 2009
1
SteelHome assumes 540 million tons of
China
crude steel output in 2009.
●
Market
price will further curb the growth of steel production
●
Coke
supply continue to curb steel production
●
The
investment in
China
steel industry will maintain low.
●
Flats
production will stay high, and glut will not change.
●
The
utilization of steel capacity stay high.
2
Financial crisis hinder
China
steel exports
●
World
economy grow slower and steel demand dims
●
China
steel
exports will be improved with the resolve of financial crisis.
3
Steel demand in
China
home markets will sustain stable rise, but the growth rate will drop from
2008.
●
Advantages—Comprehensive national power is strengthened
● Disadvantages—Domestic
demand takes up small proportion of GDP.
●
Expectation
for 2009
China
Economic Growth
---
Little headroom for FAI rise.
---
Export rise slows down further.
---
Consumption grow slower.
●
Analysis
on Downstream Sectors. In 2008, some steel-consuming industries are also
on downward slope.
●
Steel
consumption rise forecast in
China
home market in 2009
4
China
steel market forecast for 2009
Table
1: Average Price Change in
China
28 Major Cities (in yuan per ton)
2 Backward Capacity Elimination in
China
Steel Industry
3 IMF Outlook on World Economic Growth
4
China
Crude Steel Net Export Scenarios
5:
Crude Steel Demand and GDP
6
Crude Steel Demand and FAI
7:
Economic Gauges in 1997-2008
Graph
1: SteelHome
China
Steel Price Index
2
China
Steel Products, Coke Daily Output in 2007-2008
3
Euro
VS USD in 2007-2008
4
SteelHome
Global Steel Price Index (SH_CSPI)
5
China
Economic Gauges in 2007-2008
6
China
Crude Steel Monthly Supply during 2005-2008
7
China
GDP Quarterly Growth in 2007-2008
8
RMB
VS USD in 2007-2008
9
China
Industrial Enterprises’ Profits in 2001-2008
10
China
New Foreign Exchange Reserves VS Trade Surplus+ Foreign
Investment in 2007-2008
11
China
Money Supply in 2004-2008
12
SteelHome Assumes
China
Crude Steel Output of 2008
13
SteelHome Assumes China Steel, Billet/slab Import of 2008
14
SteelHome Assumes China Steel, Billet/slab Export of 2008
15
SteelHome Assumes
China
Crude Steel Impo& Expo of 2008
16
SteelHome Assumes
China
Crude Steel Supply of 2008
17
China
Crude Steel, Pig Iron, and Steel Products Daily Production
in 2007-2008
18
Large Steel mills Sales Income and Profit Ratio in 2006-2008
19
China
HRB Monthly Average Price in 2006-2008
20
China
Coke Supply VS Crude Steel Production in 2001-2008
21
China
Coke Daily Production in 2007-2008
22
Investment Growth in
China
Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals in 2000-2008
23
China
Longs, Flats Production in 2001-2007
24
China
Flats Impo& expo Change in 2000-2008
25
SteelHome Prediction on World Crude Steel Output in 2008-2009
26
Crude Steel Apparent Consumption Outside of
China
in 2008-2009
27
JPY VS USD in 2006-2008 (in 10000 yen)
28
SKW VS USD in 2006-2008 (in 10000 won)
29
IDR VS USD in 2006-2008 (in 10000 rupee)
30
RUR VS USD in 2006-2008
31
BRL VS USD in 2006-2008
32
AUD VS USD in 2006-2008
33
EURO VS USD in 2006-2008
34
China
Economic Growth in 2000-2008
35
China
Social Fix-asset Investment in 2000-2008
36
China
Consumption Growth in 2000-2008
37
China
Machinery Industry Output Value in 2001-2008
38
China
Machinery Industry Output in 2007-2008
39
Investment in
China
Property Industry in 2000-2008
40
Monthly Change in Property Industry Investment in 2007-2008
41
House
Sale
Area Growth in 2000-2008
42
China
Automobile Output in 2000-2008
43
Monthly Change in
China
Automobile Output in 2007-2008
44
China
Shipbuilding Completion in 2000-2008
45
China
Washing Machine Output in 2000-2008
46
Monthly Changes in Washing Machine Output in 2007-2008
47
China
Refrigerator Output in 2000-2008
48
Monthly Changes in Refrigerator Output in 2007-2008
49
China
Air Conditioning Output in 2000-2008
50
Monthly Changes in Air Conditioning Output in 2007-2008
51
China
Container Output in 2000-2008
52
Monthly Changes in Container Output in 2007-2008
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