In the first quarter of this year, the output of China's raw coal increased greatly than that of last year. According to the statistics of National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February of this year, the aggregated output of raw coal in China is 469.079 million tons with the aggregated year-on-year growth rate of 30.5 percent.
And the statistics of China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association shows that domestic coal output has been further centralized towards western area, the proportion of the total raw coal output in Shanxi province, Shaanxi province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has increased to 52.8 percent in that of the whole country, up 2.5 percentage points than that of the whole last year.
In terms of coal species, the output of various kinds of coal has increased, but the increase extent differs greatly. Data shows that from January to February of this year, the outputs of hard coal, coking soft coal, common soft coal and wood coal are 79.295 million tons, 74.482 million tons, 261.826 million tons and 53.476 million tons respectively, increasing 39.5 percent, 19.6 percent, 32.5 percent and 25.0 percent year on year respectively.
The growth rates of the output of hard coal and common soft coal are obviously higher than the average growth rate of the output of raw coal of the whole country while the growth rates of coking soft coal and wood coal are lower than the average level across China.
As for demand, in the first quarter, the coal demand in China witnessed a rapid growth year on year. Statistics shows that from January to February, the sales volume of coal is 463.16 million tons, up 120.92 million tons year on year with the growth rate of 35 percent.
Viewing from different industries, the coal consumption in power, cement and iron & steel industries has experienced a rapid growth year on year. From January to February, the coal consumption in power industry is 256.3141 million tons, up 26.8 percent year on year; the coal consumption on direct supply for power plants is 190.48 million tons, up 36.1 percent year on year; the coal consumption in cement industry is 45.766 million tons, up 26.5 percent year on year; the coal consumption on metallurgy industry is 95.289 million tons, up 22.3 percent year on year.
As for import and export, in February, the coal import falls slightly. In accordance with the statistics from Customs, China's coal import in February is 13.11 million tons, decreasing 2.96 million tons compared with that in January, and the decrease rate is 18.4 percent. Comparing with the historical data, the coal import is still in high level in February, soaring 168.5 percent than that of the same period of last year.
And China's coal export keeps in low level. In February, China's coal export is 1.62 million tons with the year-on-year growth rate of 12.5 percent impacted by the low base at the same period of last year, but compared with that of January, the export has dropped 200,000 tons, decreasing 11.0 percent.
Last year, China's macro economy gradually recovered, which had driven the rapid growth of domestic coal demand, plus impacted by the cold weather in winter, domestic coal demand in the fourth quarter of last year was in high level, the supply and demand in coal market showed the trend of supply shortage, which has lasted to this January.
Later, due to Spring Festival holidays and weather becoming warm, the coal demand dropped. In February, the coal supply and demand has changed from "supply shortage" to "relatively loose", the steam coal price changed from increase to decrease; with the disappearing of holiday factor, domestic economic activities have resumed gradually and coal demand recovered rapidly. In March, the supply and demand of domestic coal maintained "basic balance" condition.
With economic recovery and the rising of the prospective degree of various industries, the coal demand in industries will keep the recovery momentum and with the rising of temperature, the increase of coal demand in non-industrial activities will maintain stable and intend to rise. In general, in the second quarter of this year, the coal demand will show a momentum of "firstly low, then high"; meanwhile, with the production recovery of those coal mines that have stopped production previously, domestic coal supply will also be increased gradually, but because the advantage in the gap between international coal price and domestic one has vanished, the coal import in the second quarter will be declined to a certain extent, so as to counteract the increment of partial domestic coal supply; as predicted, in the second quarter, domestic coal supply and demand will be "inclined to tight in balance". Because the supply increase is restricted by productivity, an obvious "supply tending to shortage" pattern will be shown on coking coal.
Source: CITIC Securities |
