Copper imports by China, the
largest consumer, climbed 29 percent in March from a two-year low as
fabricators stepped up production. Shipments fell 33 percent from the same
month last year.
Inbound movements of copper
and products were 304,299 metric tons compared with 235,469 tons in
February and 456,240 tons in March 2010, according to the General
Administration of Customs. The February level was the lowest since January
2009.
While the increase from the
previous month reflected a recovery in manufacturing which grew for the
first time in March in four months and the Chinese New Year holiday in
February, the decline from last year may boost concern over whether the
level of demand in the country is being sustained. Domestic prices have
traded at a discount to London since July on ample supplies.
"The fall in imports from a
year ago reflects the negative arbitrage we've seen in the past few
months," Peng Bo, an analyst at Guosen Securities Co., said from Shenzhen.
"While we think it's still too early to say demand from China has dropped,
it's something to watch out for in the coming months."
Copper consumption in the
world's second-biggest economy usually increases from March to May when
fabricators boost output to meet demand from air-conditioner and
household- appliance makers. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 53.4
from 52.2 in February, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
said April 1.
Demand Concern
"Many market participants
placed high hopes on seasonal demand, so they chose to ship more in March,"
Wang Zhouyi, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures Co., said by phone
before the figures were released. "Arrivals in March are usually higher
than February, which tend to be affected by the long holidays for Chinese
New Year."
Copper stockpiles monitored
by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed to a 10-month high of 177,365
tons in the week ending March 18. They dropped 7,687 tons last week to
154,229 tons, according to a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai.
"March imports fell from
last year," Yan Lei, an analyst at Guoyuan Securities Co., said from
Shanghai today. "We understand consumption in March was similar to last
year's levels, which could only mean that smelters really ramped up
domestic production. If the output numbers don't show that, it may be time
to start worrying about China's copper demand."
Slowdown Risk
China has increased interest
rates four times in less than six months and boosted reserve requirements
three times this year to mop up liquidity and tame inflation. Economists
polled by Bloomberg News forecast the consumer price index may rise 5.2
percent in March from a year earlier. The National Bureau of Statistics
will release the March data on April 15.
"There is a risk that a
slowdown in the economy because of the tightening measures will damp
metals demand," said Ren Gang, head of research at Maike Futures Co. "We
still need to keep a close eye on macro-economic developments."
China imported 390,000 tons
of scrap copper in March, up from 250,000 tons in February and 364,883
tons in March last year, customs data showed. Imports of aluminum and the
metal's products were 87,729 tons in March compared with 60,202 tons the
month before and 95,050 tons in March last year.
Source: Bloomberg |