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Steelhome website publishes monthly report of eight kinds of steel and
raw material products including construction Steel, HRC/CRC, medium
plate, stainless steel, iron ore, coke, scrap and ferroalloy each
month. Also,
our website published the Monthly Report on China Steel Market for
December and the Outlook on December 2011, welcome to read the summary
below and the full artical at Monthly Report on China Steel Market
for December 2011 (http://newsen.steelhome.cn/2012/01/05/n572488.html).
If you are interested in SteelHome Monthly
Report, please contact Info@steelhome.cn, or dial
86-21-50585358/50585368/50585733.
China steel market price experienced a downswing trend in December 2011.
Among them, construction steel price declined amid fluctuation, with
larger price drop seen in wire rod. HR steel also moved in a swing,
medium plate price hunkered down slightly while that of CR series fell
down significantly.
Steel production stood at a low level as quite a few steel mills make
maintenances in the last month of 2011. The PMI (Purchasing Manager
Index) edged down below 50 for the first time since March 2009,
reflecting bleak performance of downstream industries.
Generally, China steel market is faltering at the stage of “low output,
low demand, low inventory and low price”, when the steelmakers are
confronting extremely poor profit or even losses and there’s little head
room for further price drop.
Domestic tight financial situation is expected get eased in Q1 2012.
Besides, the raw material prices may not slump sharply in light of
current relatively low steel production and inventory.
Summary:
Monthly Report on China Construction Steel Market for December 2011
The rebar, bars and wire rod production continued falling in November,
with rebar and bars production hit a year-to-date low.
China fixed assets and real estate
investment growth kept sliding
and the construction steel demand sustained shrinking as most
construction sites will suspend working before and after Chinese Lunar
New Year. The money supply growth in November presented the continuous
drop while went up month on month.
Entering the traditional off-season, domestic demand for steel products
retained contracting and most steel mills have controlled production
recently, so the raw material prices will continue the fluctuation trend
in future.
SteelHome expect that China construction steel price will experience
upward spiral in January 2012.
I China construction steel price generally vibrated in a sloping channel
in December 2011
II China rebar & bars supply retained a decline in November, but the
pressure got eased
1 China rebar & bars output hit a year-to-date low
2 Rebar & bars exports performed reduced further while imports stood low
3 China construction steel supply pressure was alleviated
III Analysis on China steel market situation in January
1 China fixed asset and real estate investment kept falling
2 China construction steel output is expected to descend further
3 Construction steel inventories to continue sliding in domestic major
marketplaces
4 Money supply growth continue sliding
5 Chinese construction steel ex-works prices were prevailed by
downgrading in December 2011
6 Domestic iron ore price edged down slightly while other raw materials
remained stable generally
Table 1 China’s construction steel price at major cities as of December
2011
Table 2 SteelHome China Steel Price Index in December 2011
Table 3 China construction steel price change in major cities in
December 2011
Table 4 China’s rebar& bars and wire rod production in November 2011
Table 5 China’s rebar& bars and wire rod exports& imports in November
2011
Table 6 China’s semis exports& imports in November 2011
Table 7 China’s supply of rebar& bars and wire rod in November 2011
Table 8 China’s money supply in the end of November 2011
Table 9 Ex-works price of China’s leading steel mills in December 2011
Table 10 SteelHome (China) Raw Material Price Index at the end of
December 2011
Graph
1: China’s high speed wire rod average price in 2009-2011
Graph 2: China’s rebar average price in leading cities in 2009-2011
Graph 3: Monthly production and growth of construction steel in
2010-2011
Graph 4: Aggregate production and growth of construction steel in
2010-2011
Graph 5: Daily construction steel output in 2009-2011
Graph 6: China construction steel imports in 2010-2011
Graph 7: China construction steel exports in 2010-2011
Graph 8: China semi-finished steel imports and exports in 2010-2011
Graph 9: China monthly construction steel supply change in 2010-2011
Graph 10: China aggregate construction steel supply change in 2010-2011
Graph 11: China Fixed Asset Investment in 2010-2011
Graph 12: China real estate investment in 2010-2011
Graph 13: China construction steel inventory in 2010-2011
Graph 14: China money supply growth in 2009-2011
Monthly Report on China Stainless Steel Market for December 2011
Prices of different series of stainless steel performed variously in
December, of which price of 300 and 200 series stainless steel gained
slightly while that of 400 series dipped marginally.
In December, average price of nickel vibrated upward and that of high
carbon ferrochrome firmed up slightly. Due to raw material price rally,
leading Chinese steel mills reduced stainless steel future price
decrement with actual executive price much higher than that of the
current market price. Approaching to year-end,
downstream users are inactive in procurement with shrinking purchasing
volumes. Traders made more effort in reclaiming money.
Affected by New Year and traditional Chinese Spring Festival, the
real trading time in January will tumble sharply, together with constant
soft market, more and more traders and downstream users closed down for
holiday.
It is predicted domestic stainless steel market in January is likely to
maintain stable.
I Stainless steel prices vibrated slightly as a whole in December 2011
II Analysis on China Stainless Steel Market for January 2012
1 Supply/demand
a) Leading Chinese stainless steel manufacturers operate normally.
b) China stainless plate (strip) export in October dropped constantly
month on month
c) China stainless steel market maintained in downturn in December 2011
2 Stainless steel metallics market
a)
LME three-month nickel futures average price fluctuated upward in
December 2011
b) China high carbon ferrochrome price Ascended slightly
c) Leading domestic stainless steel mills reduced ex-works price for
January 2012
d)
Stainless steel inventory at leading domestic markets in December
Leveled off that of prior month
Table 1 Stainless Steel Plate/strip Price at Chinese Leading Markets in
December 2011
Table 2 Import and Export of SS Plate/strip in November 2011 (Quantity
in 10000 tonnes)
Table 3
LME three-month nickel futures average price
in December 2011
Table 4 Tisco ex-works price of stainless flats for January 2012
Table 5 Baosteel’s ex-works price for December 2011
Table 6 Stainless steel inventory at Wuxi markets
Graph 1 SteelHome China Stainless Steel Price Index (SH-CSPI-SS) in
2009-Nov., 2011
Graph 2 Stainless steel price at Wuxi on in 2010-December 2011
Graph 3 China CR stainless steel sheet impo/expo in 2010-2011
Graph 4 Impo/expo of China HR medium wide SS strip in 2010-2011
Graph 5 Impo/Expo of China SS plate (strip) in 2010- Oct.,2011
Graph 6 LME three-month nickel futures closing price VS. inventory
during 2009-December 2011
Graph 7 Stainless Steel Inventory at Wuxi City during 2009-December 2011
Monthly Report on China Iron Ore Market for December 2011
Market transaction was weak during December as steel mills were away
from the market after collective restocking in November and only some
distributors entered the market before Christmas.
Regarding January market, most Chinese steel mills are bearish on steel
market, according to what we learnt. SteelHome expect iron ore prices to
wave in a narrow range, after weighting on the cautiousness, high
inventories at Chinese ports and a possible tight supply because of
operation suspensions at part Chinese beneficiation plants.
I China's Iron Ore Market in December 2011
II Forecast on China's Iron Ore Market in January 2012
1 Iron Ore Supply
2 Price of Imported Ore
3 Ocean Freight
4 Iron Ore Stockpiles
5
Chinese Steel Price Remain Weak in December
6
Indian Iron Ore Exports Fall Sharply in November
7
Vale Revise Pricing Model
8 S
Iron Ore Inventories at Chinese Steel Mills
Table 1:
Chinese Steel Mills’ Purchase Prices in December
Table 2:
Iron Ore Price in China in 2011
Table 3: Iron Ore
Supply and Pig Iron Production in November
Table 4:
Iron Ore Inventory at China Main Ports
Table 3:
Shanghai Steel Price Change in 2011
Graph 1: China iron ore price during 2010- 2011
Graph 2: China iron ore production VS. imports in 2010-2011
Graph 3: Price comparison: domestic ore VS imported ore in 2010-Nov.2011
Graph 4: International ocean freight in 2010-2011
Graph 5: China iron ore imports & Inventory at ports in 2010-2011
Monthly Report on China Coke Market for December 2011
In the first ten days of December, parts of small and medium-sized mills
in North, Northeast and Central South China slightly raised coke
purchase price on low inventories. After mid-December, however, the coke
market stagnated.
Currently, both mills and coking plants have insufficient inventories,
which will somewhat push up coke prices in certain regions. However, we
expect the market to mostly stabilize in January next year.
I Review on China coke market in December 2011
1 Coke market remained stable with mild volatility in certain regions
2. Steel prices fell amid fluctuation; coke prices generally kept stable
3. Coking coal prices remained stable; coking enterprises suffered heavy
losses
4 Coke exports fell slightly
II
Outlook on China
coke market for January 2012
1 Chinese coke supply to stabilize
2 Steel prices to keep stable, leaving little room for coke price rise
3 International coke demand remained sluggish
4 Coking coal prices to stay firm
Table 1 Chinese Coke Price Change in December
Table 2 Steelworks' Purchase Prices of Coking Coal in December
Graph 1 China II grade metallurgical coke Ex-works price in 2010-2011
Graph 2 China coking coal ex-works prices in 2010-2011
Graph 3 China coke export volume and export price in 2010-2011
Graph 4 China coke inventory at main ports in 2010-2011
Graph 5 China coke production in 2010-2011
Graph 6 Global pig iron production (sans China) in 2010-2011
Graph 7 China coking coal imports in 2010-2011 |
