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Summary

In 2018, China’s ferrosilicon and ferro-siliconmanganese production kept rising, with big newly-added FeSiMn capacity. Supply/demand was loose as a whole.

The demand of FeSi and FeSiMn was triggered by new standard of rebar and crude steel production increase. The producers of FeSi and FeSiMn in 2018 enjoyed huge recovery in profitability.

2019 will see a continuous rise in FeSi and FeSiMn production, and a slight fall in average price. However, Q2 will see the price hike.

Outline

I 2018 Review

1.1  FeSi market price in 2018 declined entirely

1.2  Monthly production of FeSi increased as operating rate in Ningxia rose and new capacity in Shaanxi started up

1.3  FeSiMn price was on the rise in 2018

1.4  FeSiMn capacity soared sharply in 2018, with yearly production hitting high rate

II 2019 Forecast

2.1 FeSi Price to move up in Q2 2019

2.2 FeSi demand will keep rising with ample supply in 2019

2.3 Newly-added FeSiMn capacity in 2019: 0.9 million tons

2.4 FeSiMn production projected to be 10 million tons, supply surplus to remain

2.5 FeSiMn price to rise in second quarter

Conclusion:

FeSi price in the first quarter fell first and then headed up. Take Zhongwei region, Ningxia province for instance, average price of FeiSi was 5699 yuan per ton in Q1. Demand for FeSi will rise, which will push Q2 price to go up. SteelHome predicts that average price of FeSi in2019 will be 5900 yuan per ton.

FeSiMn market had similar performance in Q1. Take Inner Mongolia for instance, FeSiMn average price in Q1 was 7726 yuan per ton. In Q1, the price will increase, with average price in the year at 7900 yuan per ton, slightly lower than 2018.