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Wang Xiaoguang: Analysis and Prospects of the Current Macroeconomic Situation

https://en.steelhome.com [SteelHome] 2023-11-03 14:15:53

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During October 27-29, 2023, the SteelHome China Steel Industry Summit for 2024 Market was held in Nanjing. This event was organized by SteelHome and proudly co-sponsored by Handan Zhengda Pipe Group and Ouyeel.

During this conference, seven specialized forums were conducted, including 'Innovation in Steel Supply Chain Models,' 'SteelHome Autumn Report 2023,' 'Industrial Financialization and Risk Management,' 'SteelHome Spot and Futures Trading Practical Experience Sharing,' 'The 26th Joint Meeting of Market Information for Steel Enterprises and the 9th Steel Ecosystem Market Information Conference,' 'Research on the Current State and Structural Issues in the Raw Materials Market,' and 'Steel Products: Low Carbon Environmental Protection, Structural Adjustment, and Innovation in Models.

Over 900 participants from more than 700 organizations, including over 120 domestic and international steel manufacturers, as well as more than 80 raw material companies, joined the event. Additionally, numerous industry stakeholders, institutions, and media outlets were represented. 

On the morning of October 28th, Wang Xiaoguang, Deputy Director Researcher, Ph.D. in Economics, and Doctoral Supervisor of the Economics Department of the Central Party School (National School of Administration), delivered a speech on "Analysis and Prospects of the Current Macroeconomic Situation in China".

Wang Xiaoguang, Deputy Director of the Economics Department of the National School of Administration, delivered a speech on Analysis and Prospects of the Current Macroeconomic Situation

Key points of speech:

1. The three time periods of China's macroeconomic development, namely the short term, medium term, and long term. Regarding the mid-term outlook, it was emphasized that the current period is at a critical stage, mainly summarized as the "three phases" comprehensive adjustment period, risk release period, and high-quality development breakthrough period. The economic outlook for the next five years shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, and faces four major challenges, including getting rid of real estate dependence, innovation challenges, insufficient consumption, and external pressure. Regarding the short-term outlook, it is pointed out that although the economy has recovered, it is facing challenges such as insufficient effective demand and difficulties in business operations. The reasons for short-term economic growth are mainly attributed to the "scar effect", misjudgment of industry trends, and medium to long-term pressure. Regarding the long-term outlook, the trend of high growth potential in consumption and investment, as well as broad room for innovation and development, has been highlighted.

2. Regarding whether to implement strong stimulus policies, the analysis points out that in the current difficult period, the future development potential is strong, so strong stimulus policies should not be introduced.

3. Propose two possibilities for next year's economic growth goals and policy orientations, including setting no annual targets and doubling the next 15 years as a stable growth goal, while emphasizing the importance of long-term development. The policy direction includes high-quality development at both supply and demand ends and eight major development goals.


(To contact the reporter on this story: jake.yang@steelhome.cn or 86-21-50585733 13816581143)
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