Refined
copper imports by China surged to a record in December, narrowing the
second annual decline, as consumers built inventories ahead of a seasonal
increase in demand.
Arrivals jumped 78 percent from a year ago to
406,937 metric tons, rising for a seventh month, according to an e- mailed
statement from the General Administration of Customs today. That was the
highest on record, according to Wang Zhouyi, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO
Futures Co.
Surging imports, coupled with a rebound in domestic
production, have swelled inventories in Shanghai for a seventh week and
widened the local cash discount. Three-month copper on the London Metal
Exchange advanced to $8,428.5 a ton yesterday, the highest in four months,
after retreating 21 percent in 2011.
"There are wide expectations that the market
will warm up after the Chinese New Year holiday, as spring is usually when
demand picks up," said Wang. Still, "as prices continue to
climb, we'll have to wait to see how downstream demand reacts."
Refined copper imports fell 3 percent to 2.84
million tons last year, after dropping 8.4 percent to 2.92 million tons in
2010, data from the customs office showed.
Output in the world's largest user gained for the
first time in four months in December, rising 8 percent from a year ago to
457,000 tons, as more raw material supplies prompted smelters to meet
their yearly production targets.
Surging Inventories
Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange climbed 11,193 this week to 131,645 tons, a nine-month high,
bourse data showed yesterday.
"A strong set of preliminary Chinese trade
data helped to soften market concerns regarding a slowing in demand, and
recent economic data have suggested that the probability of a hard landing
is declining at a fast pace," said Barclays Capital in a research
report yesterday.
China reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter
economic data last week. Gross domestic product expanded 8.9 percent in
the fourth quarter, more than a Bloomberg News survey for 8.7 percent.
Industrial production climbed 12.8 percent from a year ago in December,
exceeding a forecast of 12.3 percent.
"Concerns remain regarding whether copper
imports in particular will contract sharply in early 2012," analysts
at Barclays said in the report.
The metal for immediate delivery on Shanghai's
Changjiang market was quoted at a discount of about 350 yuan a ton
yesterday to the front-month Shanghai futures contract. Markets in China
will be closed during the week of Jan. 23 for the Chinese New Year
holidays.
Scrap imports in December climbed 2.7 percent from
a year ago to 446,819 tons, and full year arrivals gained 7.4 percent to
4.69 million tons, according to the customs.
Chinamining |