China
has been the one to watch for both steel and base metals for much of the
last decade as the country’s rapid industrialization has sucked in raw
materials and refined metals to the detriment of consumers everywhere.
Indeed,
much of the current negativity around prices has been due to expectations
of slower growth in China this year.
So
when the (admittedly somewhat unreliable) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
data is released, it causes quite a stir in the markets.
Andy
Home of Reuters tried to assess what the numbers were telling us in a
recent article, with the caveat that it is safer to look at trends than
absolute numbers as the NBS data is often subject to revision and
sometimes to changing collection criteria that is not always apparent when
the data is first released.
Surprisingly,
for a metal that is in global surplus and which, we are told, Chinese
manufacturers are struggling to make pay, the country added substantial
new aluminum production capacity in the first quarter. According to Home,
combined production over January and February rose by 15 percent
year-on-year to 3.51 million metric tons, the fastest pace of expansion
since 2010.
Moreover,
February’s output of 22.55 million tons annualized was a fresh all-time
record, numbers supported in the article by AZ China’s estimates of 4.3
million tons of additional capacity being added this year. So far,
inventory build has not been as impressive in China as it has been in the
West, but the SRB’s recent purchases suggest some smelters are
struggling with overproduction in spite of demand growing along with GDP.
Interestingly,
the import market for copper is undergoing something of a transformation
from refined metal to concentrates. Production of refined copper was up
11.9% over the first two months of this year, the fastest rate of
increase, Reuters says, since 2010, driving concentrate demand and
building on accelerating imports at the close of last year.
Source:
SeekingAlpha
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